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BETTING MATE BEST BET OF THE WEEK

BETTING MATE gave us a winning start to the year by tipping St Kilda to knock off Sydney last week, but this week their selection is an even more lucrative offering.

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BRISBANE LIONS v COLLINGWOOD
GABBA
Friday, 28 March at 7.40 pm (local time)

Head to Head

• The last time the two teams met, Brisbane thrashed Collingwood by 93 points at the MCG
• Prior to that the ‘Pies had been able to string two wins together, both night game victories – one at the ‘Gabba, one at the MCG.
• Brisbane had held the wood over Collingwood for the previous 4 games, with a streak that stretched back to the 2003 Grand Final victory. 

Head to Head coaching records

Matthews definitely enjoys a head to head advantage over Malthouse since they have been at their respective clubs.  Since Malthouse took over Collingwood in 2000 – Matthews leads the head to head count 10 – 4.

When they last met – Round 17, 2007.  MCG

Collingwood were set to make their run at a top four spot here, against Brisbane who’s season was supposedly over.  From the outset, the Lions took control and dominated in every area of the ground.  Simon Black had 12 clearances in the midfield, Rhan Hooper and Jed Adcock got plenty of the ball and the two best forwards on the ground were Brown and Brennan who completely outpointed opponents such as Prestigiacomo, O’Brien and Goldsack.  The final touch to the demolition was the ascendancy that the Brisbane defenders had over Travis Cloke and Anthony Rocca, shutting down any avenues to goal.  The win sparked an ultimately unsuccessful run to the finals for the Lions, but this, and the Richmond loss were crucial in costing the Magpies a top four spot. 

Odds before that game - Collingwood $1.25 Brisbane $3.50

Best Players in recent times (possession numbers in brackets)

Round 17 – 2007 (MCG)
As mentioned above Brisbane had brilliant games out of Black (30), Brennan (15 – 10 marks), Adcock (27), Brown (22 – 12 marks), Hooper (23) and Stiller (26), but realistically they had winners all over the place, with Merrett and Patfull playing excellent games in defence.  Brennan booted 7 for the night and Adcock had 4.  Brown and Hooper had 3 goals each as well, with Charman getting 2.

A horrible night for the ‘Pies with only Lonie (24), Maxwell (14 – 6 marks, 4 goals), O’Bree (21), Heath Shaw (27) and Swan (26) giving their best effort, without causing too much Lion concern.  Nick Maxwell was a shining light on a dark night for Collingwood, booting 4, as their only multiple goalkicker.

Round 9 – 2007 (Gabba) – For Collingwood O’Bree was once again in their best with 21 touches, along with Lockyer (32), Johnson (24), Burns (22) and Travis Cloke (14 – 9 marks).  Davis kicked three, with Fraser, Didak, Cloke, Pendlebury and Burns all kicking 2 each on a night that the ‘Pies got rid of their hoodoo at the ‘Gabba and won their first game there since 1995. 

Black (37), as usual against Collingwood, was terrific for the Lions.  He had Lappin (27), Clark (10 – 7 marks), Power (21), Charman (18) and Selwood (16 – 4 tackles) all contribute.  Clark kicked 5 for the night with McGrath, Power and Brown all getting 2. 

Round 10 – 2006 (MCG) – Collingwood were best served by Buckley (29), Johnson (27), Burns (29), Lockyer (27) and Holland (17).  Buckley kicked 6 that night, when the buzz was around that he could reinvent himself as a full-forward.  Fraser, Davis, Holland and Rocca all with 2 goals each ensured the ‘Pies got him with a 5 goals last quarter that finished things off against a less than full strength Lions. 

Brisbane had Brown in great touch, kicking 4 this time around, with McGrath booting 3 and Bradshaw 2 goals.  Tim Notting (28), Roe (18) and Akermanis (31) were their best – Black also chipped in with 27 touches. 

Key Players Missing
For this match
Collingwood: Rusling, Dick, Prestigiacomo
Brisbane: At this point Copeland and Adcock have had fitness tests and are no certainties to play.

Round 17 – 2007
Collingwood: Medhurst, Clement, Rhyce Shaw, Buckley, Rusling and Bryan. 
Brisbane: Bradshaw, Beau McDonald, Chris Johnson, Begley, Chris Scott and Hadley all not present. 

Round 9 – 2007
Collingwood: Buckley, Rusling, Clement, Licuria & Bryan.  Also, Martin Clarke hadn’t made his debut yet.
Brisbane: Johnson, Bradshaw, Brenann, Begley, Joel McDonald, and Leuenberger hadn’t made his debut.

Round 10 – 2006
Collingwood: No Travis Cloke, Rusling, O’Brien, Chris Tarrant, Rhyce Shaw and Dale Thomas. 
Brisbane: without Keating, Hadley, Drummond, Chris Scott, Lappin, Patfull, Chris Johnson, Merrett, Leppitsch and Adcock. 

Record at the Ground – The ‘Gabba (and other stats of interest)
• Collingwood: Their victory at the Gabba last year was their first since 1995, snapping an 8 game losing streak at the ground.  For those wanting to tip the ‘Pies, the big question for them will now be, can they do it twice in a row?
• At night last year the ‘Pies were 9 – 5 (64.3%) in their 14 games. 
• Brisbane: Did not have a great record at home last year - 6 wins, 1 draw and 5 losses (50%).  But consider that they lost 4 in a row there between Round 7 and Round 13. 
• They did lose 8 at the ‘Gabba in 2006, out of 12 games.  They lost their last 3 in Brisbane at the end of the season, after sitting 5 – 4 after Round 16.
• The Lions had 16 games at night last season for 7 wins, 2 draws and 7 losses (43.75%).  At night, at the ‘Gabba, in 2007, they played 10 matches for 4 wins, 1 draw and 5 losses (40%)
• The last 8 times the Lions have travelled to Subiaco, since 2002, they are 7 – 1 in the following round.

Key match-ups

• The match-ups on Jed Adcock (if he plays, has undergone a fitness test which we still don’t have a result on) and Simon Black are crucial for the ‘Pies.  Black has picked up 37 and 30 possessions against Collingwood in his last two games and Adcock had 27 touches and 4 goals last year in the 93 point victory.  Scott Burns may be asked to do a job and Ben Johnson returns from suspension, which is a bug plus for Collingwood.
• Rocca and Cloke vs Merrett and Patfull.  In the MCG game last season, both Patfull and Merrett gave these two a hiding (as you might expect in a 93 point win).  Cloke was excellent in the ‘Gabba game last year, with two goals and 10 inside 50’s.  This will determine the outcome of the match.  With Rusling gone, Collingwood needs these two to at least provide a strong contest, so if they aren’t kicking the goals themselves, they are creating for Didak, Davis and Medhurst.  Collingwood actually looked more potent last week when Rusling went off, so possibly Cloke and Rocca haven’t become completely comfortable playing with him yet in the game plan, and may feel a little freer to go about their business. 
• Brown and Bradshaw.  Last year it was Brennan with 7 goals and Brown with 3 that caused a lot of the headaches for the ‘Pies.  Now with Bradshaw in the mix, it makes the match-ups for Collingwood a little more difficult.  Especially if Matthews leaves Brennan forward.  Last year Prestigiacomo was Brown’s main opponent in both games, will Malthouse give Nathan Brown another huge task in two weeks?  If so, will it be Maxwell that goes to Bradshaw?  We would expect that O’Brien would likely get Brennan in those circumstances, but there’s no doubt the Brisbane forward line will be giving Malthouse some concern. 
• The Midfield battle will be enthralling.  Brisbane smashed Collingwood in their second match last year, but the ‘Pies were terrific in the ‘Gabba match with Burns, Lockyer, O’Bree, Johnson and Pendlebury all dominant.  Travis Johnstone throws a spanner in the works for Collingwood and Brisbane need Lappin, Power, Rischitelli and Stiller to lift on their efforts in the corresponding ‘Gabba game in Round 9, ’07. 
• Charman dominated Fraser and Richards last year, he won’t have it all his own way against Cameron Wood.  Wood looked terrific last week against Fremantle and will want a big game against his old club.  If he plays out of his skin, he could turn the tide towards Collingwood in this one. 

Odds (27/03/08)
TAB Sportsbet Brisbane $1.75 Collingwood $2.00

Sportsbet Brisbane $1.80 Collingwood $2.00

Lions Under 39.5 points - $2.35
Magpies Under 39.5 points - $2.50
Lions Over 39.5 points - $6.00
Magpies Over 39.5 points - $7.50

Final Analysis

Collingwood looked good in patches against Fremantle, but the second and third quarters were ordinary from both sides.  One of the key factors in Collingwood’s favour was their efficiency when the ball went inside 50.  At three quarter time, Collingwood had 20 scoring shots from just over 30 inside 50’s.  The issue for them this week will be Brisbane’s defence allowing them that type of latitude.  After a horror first quarter against the Eagles, Brisbane’s backline shut them down for the remainder of the game. 

The key element in this match for us is that Brisbane were in the middle of their worst patch of football last season when Collingwood beat them comfortably at the ‘Gabba.  That was the second of four games in a row that they lost at home.  If you take those four games of poor football out of the equation, Brisbane was very strong at the ‘Gabba yet again. 

Certainly Collingwood were playing their worst football of the season when they lost to Brisbane at the MCG last year, but a 93 point thrashing is a huge confidence booster for the Lions and they would go into this game feeling that they have the ‘Pies’ measure.  Collingwood had no Buckley, Medhurst, Rhyce Shaw or Clement for that Round 17 match.  Brisbane were without Brennan and Bradshaw and had a very inexperienced line up against a hot Collingwood when they lost at home in Round 9. 

We think Brisbane, apart from their sleepy start last week, looked very impressive and Brown, Bradshaw and others who had less game time in the pre-season, will be much better for the run. That’s why we’re going to have a bet on the Lions at the $1.80 on offer.  We think you won’t get better odds on them for the rest of the year at the ‘Gabba, so we’ll take those odds now.  Brisbane for us. 

Note: Collingwood lost ten games last year, only one of those was by over 39.5 points – the 93 point loss to Brisbane.  Their second highest losing margin was to the Bulldogs by 33 points.