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Who will win?

Well it’s been building since early in the season, this is the match up we all wanted isn’t it?

Well certainly once your own team was knocked out and it became clear the Bulldogs and St Kilda weren’t good enough to match it with the two top teams it’s what we all wanted.

Last year’s non contest has made us crave a close one and Hawthorn is certainly the best team to provide that.

But are they realistic chance of winning?

Many have said if Geelong play at their best the answer is no.

However I believe Hawthorn are not a team that need’s to rely on a slightly off day from Geelong to win.

If a few key things happen in this match make no mistake Hawthorn will win, but they must be at their best.

The way I see it Geelong have the far superior back six while Hawthorn have the far superior forward six.

In the middle I see things pretty even as well, although maybe slightly in Geelong’s favour.

If Hawthorn can at least break even in the middle and their stunning forward line can get on top of the supreme Geelong back six, the Hawks will be hard to beat.

There is a lot of ifs there but there always is and let’s face it anything can happen on a Grand Final day.

Geelong relies on a large spread of goal kickers and fast precise ball movement to kick big scores but if the game becomes man on man high pressure, as you would expect, I think the Hawks have a distinct advantage.

When they’re under a heap of pressure they have a number of big forwards to kick long to who have proven they are capable of beating the best defenders one on one.

Mooney and Lonergan at the other end cannot match the abiltiy of Franklin and Roughead but if Geelong are allowed to share and run the ball Mooney and Lonergan will play pivotal roles.

Of course Hawthorn’s young team could come out with stage fright against the experience of Geelong and we could see a belting.

But if Hawthorn come to play and don’t allow Geelong to play it on their terms they are more than a silly chance, they are a very good one.

So I’m going against the grain and tipping an upset premiership to Hawthorn for all of the above reasons but for one more big reason not yet mentioned.

Hawthorn have three West Australians in Lance Franklin, Chance Bateman and Mark Williams.

Geelong have two West Australians in Joel Corey and Harry Taylor.

Most times three beats two doesn’t it?

VERDICT: Hawks by 15 points
HIGHEST GOAL KICKER: Buddy Franklin- 6 goals
NORM SMITH: Sam Mitchell